Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, flanked by his competitors for the Democratic nomination, has wide appeal across diverse communities.
A California poll examining candidate preferences contained some revealing insights into Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’ strength in diverse communities, which could help propel him to the Democratic nomination if other candidates are unable to catch up after his dominant performance in the Nevada caucuses last week.
The data show the uphill climb in large, delegate-rich states like California and Texas for other candidates like Sen. Amy Klobuchar and former South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg, both of whom have struggled to gain traction with Latino and Black voters.
The Los Angeles Times reported Tuesday on the poll, conducted by Strategies 360, which was not intended as a Democratic primary vote survey, but rather a poll of Californian’s perceptions of candidates for president.
According to the poll, Sanders is the top choice for 23% of all voter-eligible Californians, and also leads with a plurality of Latino, Black and Asian and Pacific Americans. Sanders also dominates among younger voters.
“This isn’t just a generation gap: It’s a generational revolution,” longtime California political consultant Dan Schnur told the Los Angeles Times. “Young people of every race and ethnicity are rejecting the political system of their parents and grandparents.”
It gave a rare, granular look on the views of Latino, Black and Asian and Pacific Americans in California, groups that are often too small in most polls to draw meaningful conclusions from. The pollster oversampled to get a more accurate sample, according to the methodology.
Sanders is hoping to best former Vice President Joe Biden, who has a narrow lead in South Carolina, where voters will participate in the state’s primary Saturday.
UCLA researchers this week also published other telling data points about Nevada, whose diverse electorate looks increasingly like the country’s future. (It’s why Nevada politicians, including former U.S. Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid, are hoping to change the state’s caucuses to a primary and have it be the first nominating contest.)
According to a precinct-level analysis by the UCLA Latino Politics and Policy Initiative, Sanders won 70% of the Latino vote in Nevada. Among Asian-American voters, he also bested his competitors by big margins.
🚨BREAKING🚨 Feb 23 8:45am – The @UCLAlatino research team (@mfr_roman @MichaelHerndon_) was up late downloading & processing over 1,000 new precinct results for NV (via @nytimes). With n=1,266 precincts, sorted by % Latino we are estimating over 70% of Latino vote for Sanders pic.twitter.com/ftvURmlMYd
— UCLA LPPI (@UCLAlatino) February 23, 2020
An analysis of 23 high-density Asian-American precincts, Sanders won nearly 50% of the Asian-American vote, beating Biden by more than 27 points. UCLA researchers similarly found that Sanders won 52% of Latinos in 32 precincts with the highest Latino density in the Iowa caucuses earlier this month.
BRAND NEW ANALYSIS OF ASIAN AMERICAN VOTERS IN NEVADA – in collaboration with @uclaaasc PhD researcher @jesshjlee assessed the top high-density Asian American caucus precincts in Nevada and found Sanders w/ 49.8% compared to Biden 22.5% & Warren 10.6%. More analysis to come…. pic.twitter.com/YstwpVPUtz
— UCLA LPPI (@UCLAlatino) February 24, 2020
All this to say is that other candidates, including Klobuchar, have a lot of ground to cover in the coming days to try to stop the momentum Sanders is bringing to South Carolina on Saturday and Super Tuesday next week, when diverse states like California and Texas are set to vote.
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