Handicapping U.S. Rep. Tom Emmer’s chances to become the next speaker

Minnesota U.S. Rep. Tom Emmer of the 6th District is the early favorite to become the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, according to D.C. insider tip sheet Punchbowl News. 

He’s developed relationships with a wide cross section of the GOP conference as the current majority whip — the No. 3 position in the caucus usually tasked with counting votes. Emmer also helped Republicans pick up House seats in 2020 and 2022 as chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, where he helped the NRCC become known for its prodigious fundraising.

Emmer, who narrowly lost the 2010 race for governor to Mark Dayton before his election to Congress in 2014, won the endorsement Friday of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, the California Republican who was recently deposed, leading to the recent chaos.

Emmer benefits from a big field that may struggle to coalesce around an Emmer alternative, as well as members’ impatience with their party’s chaos, which has embarrassed House Republicans on the national stage even as they cling to a thin majority heading into 2024.

Punchbowl reports that other potential candidates include Reps. Byron Donalds, Jack Bergman, Roger Williams, Austin Scott, Jodey Arrington, Pete Sessions, Mike Johnson, Kevin Hern and Mark Green.

Emmer faces key opposition: The Trumpists. Politico reported Friday that “former President Donald Trump privately conveyed to allies on Friday he does not back Emmer’s bid for speaker.”

Although Emmer was a relatively early and loyal Trump backer in 2016, he voted to certify the 2020 presidential election results. He called the events of Jan. 6, 2021 an “unacceptable display of violence that runs counter to everything we stand for as a country.”

In the same news release after the Jan. 6 insurrection, he also rejected the Trump team’s legal theory of overturning the election: “Simply put, Congress does not have the authority to discard an individual slate of electors certified by a state’s legislature in accordance with their constitution. Doing so sets a precedent that I believe undermines the state-based system of elections that defines our Republic.”

Emmer also advised GOP candidates to stay away from Trump distractions during the 2022 campaign and focus on issues that mattered most in their districts, which likely irked Trump.

Politico described a rapid response from the Trump camp Friday:

Aside from his relatively rapid rise in the House Republican conference, Emmer has also distinguished himself by winning friends on Wall Street, and emerging as the crypto industry’s closest ally on Capitol Hill, despite representing a suburban, exurban and rural district with a tiny crypto and financial services footprint.