Daily Reformer: Super Tuesday analysis

Are you prepped? Photo by J. Patrick Coolican

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DFL operative, park board lawyer and all around Capitol and City Hall fixer Brian Rice has thoughts: 

The Sanders campaign wants to create an old/new, establishment/revolution, progressive/moderate dichotomy in the electorate. This is in fact an old and simplistic narrative that can be traced to (Friedrich) Engels. 

Sanders has admitted his new wave of voters has failed to materialize in the primary. 

In fact, here in Minnesota we saw a 500,000 increase in voter participation in our DFL primary from the 2016 caucus.  

Mr. Sanders grew his vote total by 100,000 votes. Yet, there were 400,000 more votes against Sanders than there was in 2016.  

Yes. You read that correctly. In 2016 there were about 80,000 votes for Clinton and against Sanders. Yesterday there was 220,000 votes for Sanders and 520,000 votes against him (among DFLers)  in Minnesota.  

One more fact worth considering. 2018 DFL gov primary:  Walz/Swanson 70%; Erin Murphy 30%

2020 presidential primary: Sanders 30%; everyone else 70%

Not perfect. But interesting. 

Contrary to the dominant narrative that Minnesotans are as loony as our state bird, that’s not the case. 

In 2016, Sanders won the Michigan primary. At that time it signaled that Secretary Clinton was going to have a long hard fight for the nomination. But in retrospect it also signaled a deeper problem for Clinton in the fall election. It was the first signal the blue wall had a crack. 

(Former U.S. Rep.) Rick Nolan and his campaign noticed this, and we tracked it as parts of Michigan were and are quite similar to our own 8th Congressional District.

Unlike some, I do not see that the Biden vote and the Clinton vote as perfectly correlated. In fact, I think they are different in several important respects. 

I think the Democratic electorate is vastly different and more complex. And that theory will be tested in Michigan. 

I’d take a $100 bet to make $500 that Biden KOs Bernie next week. 

Should Joe Biden win Michigan with a clear victory, this campaign may end quickly.  

I’ll happily publish a rebuttal if you’ve got one. 

What Rice is getting at in Minnesota also proved true in some other states, where turnout was way up over 2016, just not among the 20-something revolutionaries that Sanders needs and says he will deliver victory in the fall. 

Politico’s John Harris

“Biden summoned high turnout from precisely the diverse constituencies of African Americans, suburbanites, working-class and older voters that another aging pol more at home with coalition politics than movement politics —H ouse Speaker Nancy Pelosi — marshalled to retake the House in 2018.”

Sanders needs to win over some of these constituencies if he is to win the remaining states, but he’s shown no ability to. 

Gov. Tim Walz’s schedule says he’ll be with VP Mike Pence at 3M to talk coronavirus. 

Walz should tell Pence to tell his boss to stop telling this stupid lie about how the Obama administration slowed down diagnostic testing. CNN

“When asked about Trump’s remarks, Peter Kyriacopolous, chief policy officer at the Association of Public Health Laboratories, said: ‘We aren’t sure what rule is being referenced.’” 

Walz should also tell Pence to do something about our barbaric lack of paid sick leave, which will further endanger us during this public health crisis. As the Washington Post reports this week, 7 million food service workers alone don’t get paid sick time. 

Which is apropos of action at the Legislature today, where the House will vote on paid family and medical leave bill. Senate passage is unlikely. Although GOP senators in tough districts and their business allies should consider whether they’ll get a better bill this year or next year when the Senate may be in DFL hands. Also notable, state Sen. Susan Kent, who has been a policy champion in this area, will join House DFL at their 2:30 news conference. This is the first sign we’ve seen so far of a stepped up comms game by the new minority leader, led by new spokeswoman and Walz veteran Jessica Oaxaca

Really amusing story in the Post about The Way We Live Now:

Widespread fears about coronavirus have caused acute shortages of hand sanitizer, creating a cottage industry online: Purell speculation. Amazon has been awash with sanitizer arbitrage, as third-party sellers hawk their remaining supply at premium prices. (Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos owns The Washington Post.)”

Finally, some GenX notes: Are you watching High Fidelity? Love this TV adaptation of the classic John Cusack film, with Zoe Kravitz in the Cusack role. And introducing a new superstar, Da’Vine Joy Randolph, who steals the show in the Jack Black role. She’s a genius of comic timing, wit and expressiveness. 

Also, as I continue to read Love and Death, an investigation of the events surrounding the death of Kurt Cobain, I’m struck by how the Nirvana frontman’s supposed suicide framed the experience of so many people in our generation. Life, in all its plenty, was thought to be bleak and pointless. Saddest of all, some people imitated his suicide. But what if it was all a fiction? What if he was murdered? 

Cruel ironies. 

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Have a great day all! JPC